Determining agricultural drought for spring wheat with statistical models in a semi-arid climate

doi:10.2480/agrmet.D-18-00011

	Determining agricultural drought for spring wheat with statistical models in a semi-arid climate
	Zhao, Funian 1,2,3; Lei, Jun 4; Wang, Runyuan 1; Wang, Heling 1; Zhang, Kai 1; Yu, Qiang 5,6
刊名	JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
	2018-10-01
卷号	74 期号:4 页码:162-172
关键词	Pattern recognition Precipitation Regression analysis Soil water content Yield
ISSN号	0021-8588
DOI	10.2480/agrmet.D-18-00011
通讯作者	Zhao, Funian(zhaofn@iamcma.cn)
英文摘要	Agricultural drought frequently occurs and results in major grain yield loss in semi-arid climate region, but determining it is difficult. This study was conducted to determine agricultural drought for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the western Loess Plateau of China. Several statistical models were established and evaluated by long-term data, including soil water in soil layer of 50 cm depth at sowing day, air temperature, precipitation, pan evaporation during spring wheat growing season, and two groups of spring wheat yield (one from field experiments during 1987-2011 and the other from statistical Bureau during 1980-2013). Even though each of water supply factors, precipitation during growing season and the soil water at sowing day, could separately explain no more than 30% variation of the yield, both of them could explain > 55% yield variation under dry condition. Average air temperature and precipitation during growing season that displayed two apparent yield categories (drought and normal) could be used to determine agricultural drought by pattern recognition when years with the soil water at sowing day of > 98.4 mm were eliminated. Based on long-term meteorological data and the relationship between soil water at sowing day and yield under different growing season moisture conditions, the probability of agricultural drought occurrence in Dingxi for spring wheat was speculated, which nearly corresponds with the observational data during 1980-2013.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41375019] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects)[GYHY201506001-2] ; Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province[145RJYA284] ; Meteorological Research Program of Gansu Provincial Meteorological Service[GSMAMs2018-14]
WOS关键词	STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX ; LOESS PLATEAU ; WINTER-WHEAT ; YIELD VARIABILITY ; WATER-CONTENT ; CROP YIELDS ; CHINA ; IRRIGATION ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACT
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SOC AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY JAPAN
WOS记录号	WOS:000447068400004
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) ; Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province ; Meteorological Research Program of Gansu Provincial Meteorological Service
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52755]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhao, Funian
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Lanzhou Inst Arid Meteorol, Key Lab Arid Climate Change & Disaster Reduct CMA, Key Lab Arid Climat Change & Disaster Reduct Gans, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Dingxi Meteorol Bur, Dingxi 743000, Peoples R China 5.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Funian,Lei, Jun,Wang, Runyuan,et al. Determining agricultural drought for spring wheat with statistical models in a semi-arid climate[J]. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY,2018,74(4):162-172.
APA	Zhao, Funian,Lei, Jun,Wang, Runyuan,Wang, Heling,Zhang, Kai,&Yu, Qiang.(2018).Determining agricultural drought for spring wheat with statistical models in a semi-arid climate.JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY,74(4),162-172.
MLA	Zhao, Funian,et al."Determining agricultural drought for spring wheat with statistical models in a semi-arid climate".JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY 74.4(2018):162-172.