Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.070

	Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations
	Zhang, Yongyong 1; Shao, Quanxi 2
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2018-10-01
卷号	565 页码:623-635
关键词	Uncertainty propagation Model performance Bootstrap resampling SCE-UA auto-calibration HEQM
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.070
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongyong(Zhangyy003@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Multiple uncertainty sources directly cause inaccurate simulations for water related processes in complicated integrated models, as such models include many interactive modules. A majority of existing studies focus on the uncertainties of parameter and model structure, and their effects on the model performance for a single process (e.g., hydrological cycle or water quality). However, comprehensive uncertainties of different modules and their propagations are poorly understood, particularly for the integrated water system model. This study proposes a framework of uncertainty and its propagation estimation for integrated water system model (HEQM) by coupling the Bootstrap resampling method and SCE-UA auto-calibration technique. Parameter and structure uncertainties of both hydrological cycle and water quality modules are estimated, including final distributions of parameters and simulation uncertainty intervals. Additionally, the effect of uncertainty propagation of hydrological parameters is investigated. Results show that: (1) HEQM simulates daily hydrograph very well with the coefficient of efficiency of 0.81, and also simulates the daily concentrations of ammonia nitrogen satisfactorily with the coefficient of efficiency of 0.50 by auto-calibration in the case study area; (2) The final ranges of all interested hydrological parameters are reduced obviously, and all the parameter distributions are well-defined and show skew. The uncertainty intervals of runoff simulation at the 95% confidence level bracket 18.7% of all the runoff observations due to uncertainties of parameter, and 86.0% due to both parameter and module structure, respectively; (3) The uncertainty propagation of hydrological parameters changes the optimal values of 37.5% of interested water quality parameters, but does not obviously change the water quality simulations which match well with the prior simulations throughout the period and bracket only 1.7% of observations at the 95% confidence level. Due to the further introduction of module structure uncertainties, 94.8% of observations are bracketed, only except the extreme high and low water quality concentrations; (4) The uncertainty of water quality parameters contributes 12.1% of total water quality simulations at the 95% confidence level. The figure increases to 21.0% and 92.0% if the uncertainty propagation of hydrological parameters, structure uncertainties of water quality module are considered, respectively. Therefore, although the parameter uncertainty and its propagation contribute a certain proportion of the whole simulation uncertainties, the module structure itself is the primary uncertainty source for the integrated water system model (HEQM), particular for the water quality modules.
资助项目	Natural Science Foundation of China[41671024] ; Program for Bingwei Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China[2015RC201] ; International Fellowship Initiative, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China[2017VP04] ; China Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS, China[2014041]
WOS关键词	RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; FORMAL BAYESIAN METHOD ; GLUE METHODOLOGY ; IDENTIFIABILITY ANALYSIS ; PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ; GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION ; FRAMEWORK ; QUANTIFICATION ; CALIBRATION
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000447477200052
资助机构	Natural Science Foundation of China ; Program for Bingwei Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China ; International Fellowship Initiative, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, China ; China Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS, China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52660]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Yongyong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.CSIRO, Data 61, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yongyong,Shao, Quanxi. Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2018,565:623-635.
APA	Zhang, Yongyong,&Shao, Quanxi.(2018).Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,565,623-635.
MLA	Zhang, Yongyong,et al."Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 565(2018):623-635.