Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.045

	Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China
	Wang, Guofeng 1; Wu, Chengliang 2; Wang, Jingyu 2; Chen, Jiancheng 2; Li, Zhihui 3,4,5
刊名	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
	2018-12-01
卷号	203 页码:708-717
关键词	Energy structure Carbon emissions Scenarios Future development
ISSN号	0959-6526
DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.045
通讯作者	Wang, Guofeng(wanggf_simlab@163.com)
英文摘要	This study calculated the CO2 emissions clue to fossil fuel consumption in China during 2000-2015 with consideration of the regional coal-, oil-, and gas-related variations. We used logarithmic mean Divisia index methods to establish the primary influencing factors of CO2 emissions, and we extended the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios to forecast future CO2 emissions related to fossil fuel use during 2020-2030. It was determined economic development is the main reason for increased CO2 emissions, and that energy intensity and energy structure decreased CO2 emissions. Finally, we considered six scenarios to predict the future development of coal, oil, and gas consumption in China. Six scenarios including Go with the Flow, Nature@work, Green and Pleasant Land, World Market, National Security and Local Stewardship, results show Green and Pleasant Land will induced coal and oil emission decrease and gas emission slightly increase. The results obtained based on analysis of CO2 emissions and identification of regional influencing factors could provide useful information for decision makers regarding the allocation of fossil fuel use. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
资助项目	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500]
WOS关键词	ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; ROAD TRANSPORT ; OECD COUNTRIES ; MITIGATION ; PERFORMANCE ; STRATEGIES ; EFFICIENCY ; MALAYSIA
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号	WOS:000447568700055
资助机构	National Key Research and Development Program of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52648]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Guofeng
作者单位	1.Shanxi Univ Finance & Econ, Fac Int Trade, Taiyuan 030060, Shanxi, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Chinese Agr Policy, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Guofeng,Wu, Chengliang,Wang, Jingyu,et al. Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2018,203:708-717.
APA	Wang, Guofeng,Wu, Chengliang,Wang, Jingyu,Chen, Jiancheng,&Li, Zhihui.(2018).Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,203,708-717.
MLA	Wang, Guofeng,et al."Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 203(2018):708-717.