Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2264-5

	Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology
	Liu, Yujie 1; Chen, Qiaomin 1,2; Ge, Quansheng 1; Dai, Junhu 1; Dou, Yue 3
刊名	CLIMATIC CHANGE
	2018-10-01
卷号	150 期号:3-4 页码:273-287
ISSN号	0165-0009
DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2264-5
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981-2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T-mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T-mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T-mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.
WOS关键词	NORTH CHINA PLAIN ; WINTER-WHEAT ; CROP MANAGEMENT ; SPRING PHENOLOGY ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; GROWTH DURATION ; DAY LENGTH ; LATE RICE ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS记录号	WOS:000448034000010
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52632]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Yujie; Ge, Quansheng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Michigan State Univ, Ctr Syst Integrat & Sustainabil, Lansing, MI 48824 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Qiaomin,Ge, Quansheng,et al. Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,150(3-4):273-287.
APA	Liu, Yujie,Chen, Qiaomin,Ge, Quansheng,Dai, Junhu,&Dou, Yue.(2018).Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology.CLIMATIC CHANGE,150(3-4),273-287.
MLA	Liu, Yujie,et al."Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology".CLIMATIC CHANGE 150.3-4(2018):273-287.