Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method

doi:10.3390/w10121868

	Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method
	Ruan, Yunfeng 1,2; Yao, Zhijun 1; Wang, Rui 1; Liu, Zhaofei 1
刊名	WATER
	2018-12-01
卷号	10 期号:12 页码:22
关键词	CMIP5 GCMs improved score-based method rank performance multiple criteria
ISSN号	2073-4441
DOI	10.3390/w10121868
通讯作者	Liu, Zhaofei(zfliu@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	This study assessed the performances of 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) in reproducing observed precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Observations from gauge-based data of the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) precipitation data were obtained from 1975 to 2004. An improved score-based method was used to rank the performance of the GCMs in reproducing the observed precipitation over the LMB. The results revealed that most GCMs effectively reproduced precipitation patterns for the mean annual cycle, but they generally overestimated the observed precipitation. The GCMs showed good ability in reproducing the time series characteristics of precipitation for the annual period compared to those for the wet and dry seasons. Meanwhile, the GCMs obviously reproduced the spatial characteristics of precipitation for the dry season better than those for annual time and the wet season. More than 50% of the GCMs failed to reproduce the positive trend of the observed precipitation for the wet season and the dry season (approximately 52.9% and 64.7%, respectively), and approximately 44.1% of the GCMs failed to reproduce positive trend for annual time over the LMB. Furthermore, it was also revealed that there existed different robust criteria for assessing the GCMs' performances at a seasonal scale, and using multiple criteria was superior to a single criterion in assessing the GCMs' performances. Overall, the better-performed GCMs were obtained, which can provide useful information for future precipitation projection and policy-making over the LMB.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41661144030] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41561144012]
WOS关键词	CLIMATE MODELS ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; PERFORMANCE ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; MAXIMUM ; TRENDS ; CHINA ; SOUTH
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000455314300163
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/50477]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Liu, Zhaofei
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruan, Yunfeng,Yao, Zhijun,Wang, Rui,et al. Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method[J]. WATER,2018,10(12):22.
APA	Ruan, Yunfeng,Yao, Zhijun,Wang, Rui,&Liu, Zhaofei.(2018).Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method.WATER,10(12),22.
MLA	Ruan, Yunfeng,et al."Ranking of CMIP5 GCM Skills in Simulating Observed Precipitation over the Lower Mekong Basin, Using an Improved Score-Based Method".WATER 10.12(2018):22.