Relative contribution of climate variability and human activities on the water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge into Lake Chad: A conceptual and statistical approach

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.015

	Relative contribution of climate variability and human activities on the water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge into Lake Chad: A conceptual and statistical approach
	Zhu, Wenbin 1,2; Jia, Shaofeng 1; Lall, Upmanu 2,3; Cao, Qing 4; Mahmood, Rashid 1
刊名	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
	2019-02-01
卷号	569 页码:519-531
关键词	Runoff change Climate variability Human activities Chari/Logone River Budyko analysis Statistical analysis
ISSN号	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.015
通讯作者	Zhu, Wenbin(zhuwb@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Jia, Shaofeng(jiasf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Lake Chad was once the sixth largest lake in the world, with a surface area of about 25,000 km(2) in the early 1960s. However, it has shrunk to almost only one-twentieth of its maximum area by now. As the biggest river of the Lake Chad basin, the Chari/Logone River contributes approximately 90% of Lake Chad's water input. Consequently, several previous studies have focused on the Chari/Logone River system to investigate the causes of Lake Chad's shrinkage. However, due to the lack of authoritative irrigation and natural runoff observations, it is usually difficult to explain the relative contribution of human activities and climate variability. In this paper, unlike the hydrological modeling approaches used in previous studies, a conceptual and statistical approach was presented to investigate discharge variations and the causes leading to such variations. Specifically, the runoff .change caused by climate variability (Delta Q(climate)) was estimated using Budyko analysis, while that caused by human activities (Delta Q(h)(uman)) was estimated using regression analysis. The accuracy of estimation was evaluated through cross validation and comparison with previous studies. The comparison suggests that due to the lack of natural runoff and irrigation withdrawal observations, the runoff simulation produced by previous hydrological models suffers from large errors. The water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge is dominated by human activities rather than climate variability. On annual average scale, the total water loss caused by climate variability and anthropogenic activities is 16.76 km(3). The relative contribution of Delta Q(climate) and Delta Q(h)(uman) is 26.83% and 73.17%, respectively. The role of human activities is particularly obvious in recent ten years from 2003 to 2013. Due to the increase of rainfall and irrigation withdrawals, the relative contribution of human activities accounts for more than 80% of the total water loss.
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701485]
WOS关键词	BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; VEGETATION ; RUNOFF ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; STREAMFLOW ; STORAGE ; IMPACT ; MODEL
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000457952900039
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49967]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Zhu, Wenbin; Jia, Shaofeng
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY 10027 USA 3.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY 10025 USA 4.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Wenbin,Jia, Shaofeng,Lall, Upmanu,et al. Relative contribution of climate variability and human activities on the water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge into Lake Chad: A conceptual and statistical approach[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,569:519-531.
APA	Zhu, Wenbin,Jia, Shaofeng,Lall, Upmanu,Cao, Qing,&Mahmood, Rashid.(2019).Relative contribution of climate variability and human activities on the water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge into Lake Chad: A conceptual and statistical approach.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,569,519-531.
MLA	Zhu, Wenbin,et al."Relative contribution of climate variability and human activities on the water loss of the Chari/Logone River discharge into Lake Chad: A conceptual and statistical approach".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 569(2019):519-531.