Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt

doi:10.3390/rs11030332

	Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt
	Radwan, Taher M.1,2; Blackburn, G. Alan 1; Whyatt, J. Duncan 1; Atkinson, Peter M.1,3,4,5
刊名	REMOTE SENSING
	2019-02-01
卷号	11 期号:3 页码:20
关键词	land use/land cover change detection agricultural land sustainability CA-Markov remote sensing
ISSN号	2072-4292
DOI	10.3390/rs11030332
通讯作者	Radwan, Taher M.(t.radwan@lancaster.ac.uk)
英文摘要	Egypt has one of the largest and fastest growing populations in the world. However, nearly 96% of the total land area is uninhabited desert and 96% of the population is concentrated around the River Nile valley and the Delta. This unbalanced distribution and dramatically rising population have caused severe socio-economic problems. In this research, 24 land use/land cover (LULC) maps from 1992 to 2015 were used to monitor LULC changes in the Nile Delta and quantify the rates and types of LULC transitions. The results show that 74,600 hectares of fertile agricultural land in the Nile Delta (Old Lands) was lost to urban expansion over the 24 year period at an average rate of 3108 ha year(-1), whilst 206,100 hectares of bare land was converted to agricultural land (New Lands) at an average rate of 8588 ha year(-1). A Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) integrated model was used to simulate future alternative LULC change scenarios. Under a Business as Usual scenario, 87,000 hectares of land transitioned from agricultural land to urban areas by 2030, posing a threat to the agricultural sector sustainability and food security in Egypt. Three alternative future scenarios were developed to promote urban development elsewhere, hence, with potential to preserve the fertile soils of the Nile Delta. A scenario which permitted urban expansion into the desert only preserved the largest amount of agricultural land in the Nile Delta. However, a scenario that encouraged urban expansion into the desert and adjacent to areas of existing high population density resulted in almost the same area of agricultural land being preserved. The alternative future scenarios are valuable for supporting policy development and planning decisions in Egypt and demonstrating that continued urban development is possible while minimising the threats to environmental sustainability and national food security.
资助项目	Egyptian Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research through the Egyptian Cultural and Educational Bureau in London ; British Council (Egypt)
WOS关键词	COVER CHANGE DETECTION ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; MARKOV-CHAIN ; MODEL ; SPRAWL ; GIS ; SIMULATION ; PREDICTION ; ACCURACY ; DYNAMICS
WOS研究方向	Remote Sensing
语种	英语
出版者	MDPI
WOS记录号	WOS:000459944400120
资助机构	Egyptian Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research through the Egyptian Cultural and Educational Bureau in London ; British Council (Egypt)
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49173]
专题	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者	Radwan, Taher M.
作者单位	1.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England 2.Alexandria Univ, Dept Soil & Water Sci, Fac Agr El Shatby, Alexandria 21545, Egypt 3.Queens Univ Belfast, Sch Nat & Built Environm, Belfast BT7 1NN, Antrim, North Ireland 4.Univ Southampton, Geog & Environm Sci, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Radwan, Taher M.,Blackburn, G. Alan,Whyatt, J. Duncan,et al. Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt[J]. REMOTE SENSING,2019,11(3):20.
APA	Radwan, Taher M.,Blackburn, G. Alan,Whyatt, J. Duncan,&Atkinson, Peter M..(2019).Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt.REMOTE SENSING,11(3),20.
MLA	Radwan, Taher M.,et al."Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt".REMOTE SENSING 11.3(2019):20.