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	Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease
	Zhang, Ping1,2,3; Atkinson, Peter M.4
刊名	Mathematical biosciences
	2008
卷号	211期号:1页码:166-185
关键词	Ca land use development model Population projection matrix model Ca epidemic model Urbanization Infectious disease transmission
ISSN号	0025-5564
DOI	10.1016/j.mbs.2007.10.007
通讯作者	Zhang, ping(gracezp2004@yahoo.com.cn)
英文摘要	This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a ca land use development model, population projection matrix model and ca epidemic model in s-plus. the innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (ca) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. a population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. a case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the uk. the simulation results for southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. the modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications. (c) 2007 elsevier inc. all rights reserved.
WOS关键词	CELLULAR-AUTOMATON MODEL ; EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELS ; URBAN-GROWTH ; LAND ; SIMULATION ; EPIDEMICS ; DYNAMICS ; HEALTH ; PROPAGATION ; VACCINATION
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS类目	Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号	WOS:000253029900009
内容类型	期刊论文
URI标识	http://www.corc.org.cn/handle/1471x/2391499
专题	中国科学院大学
通讯作者	Zhang, Ping
作者单位	1.Jilin Univ, Geoexplorat Sci & Technol Coll, Changchun 130024, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Northeast Geog & Agr Ecol Inst, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ping,Atkinson, Peter M.. Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease[J]. Mathematical biosciences,2008,211(1):166-185.
APA	Zhang, Ping,&Atkinson, Peter M..(2008).Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease.Mathematical biosciences,211(1),166-185.
MLA	Zhang, Ping,et al."Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease".Mathematical biosciences 211.1(2008):166-185.

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