Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

doi:10.1038/srep43822

CORC > 昆明植物研究所 > 中国科学院昆明植物研究所 > 植物化学与西部植物资源持续利用国家重点实验室

	Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China
	Tang,Cindy Q.; Dong,Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira,Sonia; Matsui,Tetsuya; Ohashi,Haruka; He,Long-Yuan; Nakao,Katsuhiro; Tanaka,Nobuyuki; Tomita,Mizuki; Li,Xiao-Shuang
刊名	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
	2017
卷号	7 页码:43822
关键词	Last Glacial Maximum Western North-america Quaternary Climate Extinction Risk Change Threats Europe Phylogeography Populations Responses Habitat
ISSN号	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/srep43822
英文摘要	This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5-1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
学科主题	Multidisciplinary Sciences
语种	英语
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.kib.ac.cn/handle/151853/54957]
专题	昆明植物研究所_植物化学与西部植物资源持续利用国家重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tang,Cindy Q.,Dong,Yi-Fei,Herrando-Moraira,Sonia,et al. Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7:43822.
APA	Tang,Cindy Q..,Dong,Yi-Fei.,Herrando-Moraira,Sonia.,Matsui,Tetsuya.,Ohashi,Haruka.,...&Lopez-Pujol,Jordi.(2017).Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7,43822.
MLA	Tang,Cindy Q.,et al."Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017):43822.