Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain

doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.11.027

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain
	Zhang, Xubo 1,2; Xu, Minggang 1; Sun, Nan 1; Xiong, Wei 3; Huang, Shaomin 4; Wu, Lianhai 2
刊名	GEODERMA
	2016
卷号	265 页码:176-186
关键词	Climate change SPACSYS Wheat Maize Yield Soil organic matter
ISSN号	0016-7061
DOI	10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.11.027
通讯作者	Zhang, Xubo
英文摘要	Changes in field management and climate will alter soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SN) cycling in the coming decades. This study is to quantify the effects of various fertilisation strategies and climate change scenarios on crop yield, and soil C and N cycling by the end of this century. Data from a long-term experiment with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivium L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) rotation in Northern China was used to calibrate and validate the SPACSYS model. Five fertiliser practices were used: control (CK); combined mineral nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK); NPK plus manure (NPKM); high application rate of NPK fertilisers plus manure (hNPKM) and NPK with straw incorporation (NPKS). Crop yields, and SOC and SN stocks by 2100 were predicted under four climate scenarios (Baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP4.5). Results showed that the SPACSYS model can adequately simulate the dynamics of SOC and SN stocks and the yields of winter wheat and summer maize. An application of NPK plus manure or straw not only enhanced crop yield, but also substantially increased SOC and SN stocks. The predictions showed the positive effects of fertilisation and climate change on crop yields and SOC stocks compared with those under the baseline. However, SN stock under the RCP8.5 decreased by 3-14% by 2100 for various fertilisation strategies compared with that under the baseline. On the other hand, mineral fertiliser plus manure led to a higher soil respiration rate and nitrogen losses through leaching and surface runoff under all the climate scenarios. Therefore, application of mineral fertilisers plus manure could enhance crop productivity and sustain soil fertility but cause more carbon emitted to the atmosphere and nitrogen losses. More attention should be paid on optimising fertilisation in order to increase crop productivity while minimising environmental risks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Soil Science
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000368746200019
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/19708]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Natl Engn Lab Improving Qual Arable Land, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Rothamsted Res, Sustainable Soils & Grassland Syst Dept, North Wyke EX20 2SB, Okehampton, England 3.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 4.Henan Acad Agr Sci, Inst Plant Nutr Resources & Environments, Zhengzhou 450002, Henan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xubo,Xu, Minggang,Sun, Nan,et al. Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain[J]. GEODERMA,2016,265:176-186.
APA	Zhang, Xubo,Xu, Minggang,Sun, Nan,Xiong, Wei,Huang, Shaomin,&Wu, Lianhai.(2016).Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain.GEODERMA,265,176-186.
MLA	Zhang, Xubo,et al."Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain".GEODERMA 265(2016):176-186.