SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析

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	SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析
	张颖娴; 许吟隆
刊名	中国农业气象
	2009
卷号	30 期号:4 页码:471-476
关键词	PRECIS 日较差夏季日数霜冻日数 SRES A2、B2情景
ISSN号	1000-6362
其他题名	Analysis on Diurnal Temperature Difference, Summer Days and Frost Days Change in Ningxia under A2 and B2 Scenarios
英文摘要	利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies)进行宁夏地区SRES A2、B2情景下2071-2100年(2080s时段)日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化响应的初步分析.将ECMWF1979-1993年的再分析数据(ERA15)作为边界条件驱动PRECIS模拟宁夏地区的日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数.模拟值与台站实际观测资料进行的对比分析表明,PRECIS能够模拟出宁夏地区这些极端指标的空间分布差异和年际变化,总体上来说,日较差、夏季日数模拟值偏大,南部地区霜冻日数的模拟值偏小.3个极端指标气候基准时段(1961-1990年)的模拟频率和观测频率的对比分析表明,PRECIS能够模拟出极端指标的频率分布.另外,用观测数据对模式数据进行了订正,经验证,订正后的值与观测值的吻合程度明显提高.相对于Baseline,SRES A2、B2情景下2080s宁夏大部地区的日较差将减少;夏季日数将增加,两种情景下平均每年增量分别可达69d和48d;而霜冻日数将减少,两种情景下平均每年减少量分别可达50d和36d.; The responses of diurnal temperature difference, summer days and frost days during 2071 -2100 (2080s) under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios in Ningxia was analyzed by using the PRECIS ( Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) , a regional climate model system developed by the UK Met Office Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. ECMWF 1979 - 1993 reanalysis data (ERA15) was used as quasi-observational boundary condition to drive the PRECIS. Through comparison of the simulated diurnal temperature difference, summer days and frost days and in situ observation in meteorological stations, the results showed that PRECIS might reproduce spatial distribution and annual variation of these extreme indexes in Ningxia, but diurnal temperature difference and the summer days were over-estimated, and the frost days was under-estimated in south of Ningxia. According to comparison of the simulated baseline (1961 -1990) frequency and observation, it indicated that PRECIS might simulate frequency distribution of these extreme climate indexes. Meanwhile, observation data was used to correct simulated data, the corrected simulation matched the observation data was better than the un-corrected. Diurnal temperature difference would decrease in Ningxia during 2080s to baseline under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. The summer days would increase remarkably and the increment would reach 69 days and 48 days per year. On the contrary, the frost days would decrease and the decrement could reach 50 days and 36 days per year respectively under two scenarios.
学科主题	农业基础科学
语种	中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/17299]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张颖娴,许吟隆. SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析[J]. 中国农业气象,2009,30(4):471-476.
APA	张颖娴,&许吟隆.(2009).SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析.中国农业气象,30(4),471-476.
MLA	张颖娴,et al."SRES A2、B2情景下宁夏地区日较差、夏季日数及霜冻日数变化的初步分析".中国农业气象 30.4(2009):471-476.