| 人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的期限结构分析; The Sequence of the RMB Capital Account Openness Reform: A Time-Structure Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model | |
| 胡逸闻 ; 戴淑庚 | |
| 2015-04-25 | |
| 关键词 | 资本账户开放 TVP-VAR模型 改革顺序 |
| 英文摘要 | 人民币国际化的改革目标要求中国在综合考虑金融改革的背景下,统筹安排资本账户的开放顺序。文章通过运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAr),实证配套金融改革之间的影响关系与宏观影响。研究结果显示,利率及汇率改革会显著增强跨境资本流动对货币价值的冲击,因此资本账户开放不宜置于改革末期。综合三项改革的影响作用,在以宏观稳定为首要目标、经济持续增长为次要目标的情况下,研究结论认为“利率市场化——资本账户部分开放——汇率市场化——资本账户完全开放“是最适宜人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序。; In order to achieve the RMB internationalization,China should manage an sequential opening-up of capital account,considering thefinancial reformprogress.The empirical analysis by using the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive Model indicates that the reform of interest and exchange rates intensifies the impact of cross-border capital flows on monetary values.Thus,the opening up of capital account should not be left to later stages of the reform.By taking macroeconomic stability as a primary objective and sustainable economic growth as secondary objective,the research concludes that the best sequence of RMB capital account opening is interest rate liberalization-partial opening of capital account-exchange rate reform-whole opening of capital account. |
| 语种 | zh_CN |
| 内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 源URL | [http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/113635]  |
| 专题 | 经济学院－已发表论文 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 胡逸闻,戴淑庚. 人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的期限结构分析, The Sequence of the RMB Capital Account Openness Reform: A Time-Structure Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model[J],2015. |
| APA | 胡逸闻,&戴淑庚.(2015).人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的期限结构分析.. |
| MLA | 胡逸闻,et al."人民币资本账户开放的改革顺序研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的期限结构分析".(2015). |
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