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	中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度的关系——内生关系与空间溢出效应; The Relation between Transport Infrastructure and Employment Density in Chinese Cities:Endogenous Relation and Spatial Spillovers
	邓明
	2014-01-15
关键词	交通基础设施 就业密度 内生性 空间溢出性 transport infrastructure employment density endogenous relation spatial spillovers
英文摘要	本文在理论分析的基础上,利用1999~2010年中国地级以上城市数据和空间联立方程模型,研究了中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度之间的内生关系和空间溢出关系。本文研究结果表明,城市交通基础设施对第二产业和第三产业就业密度有显著的促进作用,而且对后者的促进作用要大于前者;第二产业和第三产业的就业密度对城市交通建设也存在显著促进作用。此外,城市间的交通基础设施和劳动力就业密度存在显著的正的空间自相关性,相邻地区的交通基础设施对本地区第二产业和第三产业就业密度有显著的抑制作用,如果忽略这种影响,会低估交通基础设施对劳动力就业密度的作用。; The relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth has been a significant issue concerned by economists,and there are a large mass of literatures about the relation between infrastructure and output,output growth,productivity,inequity,etc.However,researches relating transportation infrastructure to employment,which is one of the main goals of macroeconomic regulatory system,are not fruitful.Existing literatures are mainly about the promotion of infrastructure construction to employment,and very few literatures relate to the promotion of employment to infrastructure construction,which is especially outstanding in the literature about China's infrastructure.So,next comes the question that does employment affect the infrastructure.The research about this question has two significances.The first significance relate to analysis techniques.If employment does have significant effect to infrastructure construct,so infrastructure can not be regarded as an exogenous variable,we should regard it as an endogenous variable.The second significance relate to the economic meaning.If employment does have significant effect to infrastructure construct,so we get a new angle for analyzing the relation between infrastructure and employment.By our theoretical analysis,we believe that there is mutual promotion relationship between infrastructure and employment.Furthermore,infrastructure construction of one region can exert effects to employment intensity of another region.In addition,under the mechanism background of China-style fiscal decentralization,infrastructure investments of different regions in China have a spatial correlation among each other,which induces a spatial correlation of employment intensities among regions.In order to confirm the theoretical hypotheses of this paper,we construct a simultaneous model to analysis the mutual endogenous relation between city transportation infrastructure and employment,on this basis,we introduce spatial lag of dependent variable to the simultaneous model and construct a spatial simultaneous model to estimation the mutual endogenous relation and spatial spillover effect between city transportation infrastructure and employment.The data we use is data of cities at prefecture level and above in China from 1999 to 2010.In order to avoid the endogeneity of dependent variable,we use a three-stage least squares(3SLS) method to estimate the parameters.We find that:(1) Transportation infrastructure of cities has a significant promotion to employment density.In particular,this promotion is greater to the tertiary industry.This finding implicates a strong policy suggestion for China's industrial structure transition and service industry development promotion,as traditionally,people believe transportation infrastructure exerts a greater efforts to the transportation of raw materials and sales for the secondary industry.(2) Employment intensity of the secondary and the tertiary industry promotes the construction of city level transportation infrastructure.This promoting effect could be from an induced demand or by increase of fiscal basis.The elasticity of employment intensity to transportation infrastructure is greater than the latter to the former,(3) Transportation infrastructure of neighbor regions would cease development of the second industry and the tertiary industry in local area.Effect of transportation infrastructure to employment could be underestimated if ignoring such channels.Our findings have two implications:for theories researches,we find that the relationship between city level transportation infrastructure and employment is a mutual instead of a one-way pattern.Transportation infrastructure bears a significant spatial correlation with employment among cities.Estimation results could be biased by ignoring these endogenous relations.As to empirical implication,we find that transportation infrastructure of a city could not only promote its own employment,but more importandy,it could induce the flow of labor into transportation infrastructure-developed cities,which ceases other cities' economic development and employments.Thus we suggest that city governments should make efforts to improve their investment environments to create more job opportunities when accelerating their transportation infrastructure construction.; 中国博士后科学基金项目“城市间土地财政的竞争外溢与房价的空间传导”(2012M510670); 教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“空间似无关回归模型_参数估计、设定检验及其应用”(13YJC910003); 全国统计科研计划项目“时变系数的空间面板数据模型——理论与应用”(2012LY015)
语种	zh_CN
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/113407]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	邓明. 中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度的关系——内生关系与空间溢出效应, The Relation between Transport Infrastructure and Employment Density in Chinese Cities:Endogenous Relation and Spatial Spillovers[J],2014.
APA	邓明.(2014).中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度的关系——内生关系与空间溢出效应..
MLA	邓明."中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度的关系——内生关系与空间溢出效应".(2014).

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