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	大陆赴港旅游波动规律及其影响因素; Research on the Demand Fluctuation of Travel to Hong Kong and Its Influenced Factors
	林文凯 ; 林璧属
	2015-02-15
关键词	赴港旅游 波动规律 滤波法 季节调整法 影响因素 the mainland to Hong Kong tourism fluctuation pattern Filter Method Seasonal Adjustment influenced factor
英文摘要	研究我国大陆赴港旅游波动规律,能够科学地预测区域旅游发展趋势和制定有效的旅游发展政策。本文从周期波动的视角,选取HP滤波法和bP滤波法,对大陆赴港旅游进行长时段周期性波动分析,基于季节调整法对大陆赴港旅游进行短时段季节性波动分析。研究表明,1976年以来大陆赴港旅游经历了9次周期性波动变化,平均波动周期为3.8年,周期长度呈现先升后降的变动趋势,且整体波动幅度渐趋平缓;从短期波动特征来看,大陆赴港旅游整体表现出明显的季节性递增波动特点,春季为各年大陆赴港旅游的低谷期,7—8月将迎来每年赴港旅游的高潮,其后的9—11月会有一定的波动调整,并在12月再次达到高峰;从其影响因素来看,除季节因素与不规则因素会对大陆赴港旅游产生阶段性的短期影响之外,其他因素,诸如社会经济发展、旅游发展政策、居民消费能力等因素,也将对大陆赴港旅游的长短期波动规律产生显著影响。最后,基于研究结论提出了相应旅游发展政策,指出未来应加强对大陆赴港旅游经济效应的分析。; Accurately grasp the tourist demand variation patterns is the key to predict the tourist demand trends,which can also explain the support and contribution which mainland residents to Hong Kong tourism brings to Hong Kong's tourism economy scientifically.Based on the theory of economic cycle analysis perspective,this paper uses the HP filter and BP filter to analysis the annual time series of tourism demand of mainland residents to Hong Kong and selects the seasonal adjustment method to analysis the monthly time series,and draw the following conclusions:a.From the perspective of the long-term volatility,as the data shows,since 1976,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism exists a total number of nine cyclical fluctuation changes during this period,the average fluctuation period is about 3.8 years,and the trend of the cycle length increases first and then becomes shorter gradually in the next few years,the volatility of the cycle length are becoming more smooth;with the decomposition of its long-term trend elements,this paper finds that the future of the Hong Kong tourism will continue to maintain a large growth increment.b.From the perspective of the short-term volatility,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism fluctuation presents an obvious increasing seasonal characteristic.Through the seasonal adjustment,the extracted seasonal factors showed that the spring is the "down times" of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism which is limited by tourists fatigue to go out to travel;under the influences of the increase of free time and the vacation holidaies,the peak number of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will be met in July and August.thereafter,during the month of September to November,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will show some fluctuation adjustments,and then peaked again in December.c.With a thorough analysis on the influenced factors of the variation of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,this paper finds that:apart from the seasonal factor and irregular factor which will make a short-term impact on the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,the level of economic development,tourism development policies,and the deepening economic integration process on the mainland and Hong Kong all have a significant influence on the long-term variation rule;the political and economic crisis and other factors,such as the mainland residents' consumption ability,the festival/holiday arrangement will significantly affect the short-term fluctuations of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism;moreover,the augment of the alternative destination and the reduce cost in alternative tourism destination will definitely have a certain impact on the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,but both short-term and long-term prediction results show that the overall growth trend of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism will not be changed.With the increasing passengers of the mainland to Hong Kong tourism,especially the mainland residents' purchasing power is growing rapidly,the mainland to Hong Kong tourism has become a main driver of the growth of Hong Kong tourism industry and maintains it at a high development speed.Therefore,the future research can strengthen the attention to the analysis of economic effect what the mainland brings to Hong Kong,and quantitative measure the mainland to Hong Kong tourism's economic contribution,and on this basis,put forward some specific suggestions on tourism development and help to make the public development policies.In addition,how to measure the holiday /weekday effect and in the seasonal adjustment process in the field of tourism research also needs to be further in-depth explore.
语种	zh_CN
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/103276]
专题	管理学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	林文凯,林璧属. 大陆赴港旅游波动规律及其影响因素, Research on the Demand Fluctuation of Travel to Hong Kong and Its Influenced Factors[J],2015.
APA	林文凯,&林璧属.(2015).大陆赴港旅游波动规律及其影响因素..
MLA	林文凯,et al."大陆赴港旅游波动规律及其影响因素".(2015).

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