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	Ultra-short term load forecasting based on similarity search in time-series
	Zhang Si-yuan ; He Guang-yu ; Mei Sheng-wei ; Wang Wei ; Zhang Wang-jun
	2010-10-12 ; 2010-10-12
关键词	Practical Theoretical or Mathematical/ data mining load forecasting power engineering computing time series/ ultra-short term load forecasting similarity search unstable forecasting accuracy time-series data mining data processing mechanism weighted processing power system/ B8110D Power system planning and layout B0240Z Other topics in statistics C7410B Power engineering computing C1140Z Other topics in statistics C6170K Knowledge engineering techniques
中文摘要	In current ultra-short term load forecasting algorithms, such disadvantages as unstable forecasting accuracy, weak real-time performance and so on, are to be avoided. Based on the important method of time-series data mining, i.e., the similarity search in time-series and combining with periodical variation law of power load itself, a new ultra-short term load forecasting method is proposed. The proposed method possesses simple and practical bad data processing mechanism; the number of forecast samples is effectively increased by use of the concept of the similarity of load series expanded; the risk brought about by single sample forecasting is reduced by weighted processing of forecasted results and make the forecasting accuracy stable in a higher level. Applying the proposed method to an actual power system, it is shown that the proposed method possesses the features of high forecasting accuracy and strong stability, so it can satisfy the requirements of power system in various aspects well.
语种	中文
出版者	Electric Power Research Institute ; China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/82233]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Si-yuan,He Guang-yu,Mei Sheng-wei,et al. Ultra-short term load forecasting based on similarity search in time-series[J],2010, 2010.
APA	Zhang Si-yuan,He Guang-yu,Mei Sheng-wei,Wang Wei,&Zhang Wang-jun.(2010).Ultra-short term load forecasting based on similarity search in time-series..
MLA	Zhang Si-yuan,et al."Ultra-short term load forecasting based on similarity search in time-series".(2010).

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