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	决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探
	丁志国 ; 苏治 ; 杜晓宇 ; 李晓周 ; Ding Zhiguo ; Su Zhi ; Du Xiaoyu ; LI Xiaozhou
	2010-06-07 ; 2010-06-07
关键词	投资决策 理性 非理性 决策黑箱 大数定律 Decision-making Rational Irrational Black Box Law of Large Numbers (LLN) F830.59
其他题名	Black Box in Decision-making:A New Guess on Modern Theory of Investor's Decision
中文摘要	现代金融学关于经济主体投资决策的依据问题存在两种截然不同的观点,传统金融学基于理性预期认为投资主体决策的依据是信息;而行为金融学则从非理性出发认为主体决策不仅依据信息同时还由心理和情感因素决定。由于金融市场中投资主体理性选择与非理性选择的同时存在,在承认理性选择行为的同时,暗含着对非理性选择行为的默认,认为投资决策是一个存在"决策黑箱"的心理过程,投资主体依据理性还是非理性主要由主体情绪和信息获得与处理的复杂程度决定,对于相同的信息投资者根据当时的市场环境得出不同的判断,导致证券价格也会有不同的表现,决定集群行为的大数定律最终会发挥作用。; In modern finance, there are two inconsistent standpoints for investor's decision mechanism. Based on rational expectation, the traditional finance takes information as the foundation of the investor's decision-making, but starting from irrational behavior, the behavioral finance concludes that, besides information, psychological and emo-tional factors also determined the investor's decision. Relying on the Prospect Theory, this paper analyzed the coexist-ence of investor's rational and irrational decision, and thinks that acknowledgement for the existence of rational choice gives an indication of the acquiescence for investor's irrational decision. In our conclusions, the investor's decision-making is a psychological process which has a black box in it, and, the emotion of investor along with the difficulty of collecting and managing information determines that the foundation of decision-making is rational or not. In other word, the investor will have different judgement in the distinguishing status of market, which makes the securities equilibrium price behave differently, and the Law of Large Numbers of all investors will decide what will be embodied in the equilibrium price.; 2006年国家社会科学基金项目(06CJL006); 2005年国家自然科学基金项目(70573040); 2005年教育部重大项目(05JJD790008)资助
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/38889]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	丁志国,苏治,杜晓宇,等. 决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探[J],2010, 2010.
APA	丁志国.,苏治.,杜晓宇.,李晓周.,Ding Zhiguo.,...&LI Xiaozhou.(2010).决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探..
MLA	丁志国,et al."决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探".(2010).

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