Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers

	Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers
	Li QX(李启秀)1,2 ; Li KJ(李可军)1
刊名	CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
	2007
卷号	7 期号:3 页码:435-440
关键词	sun : activity sun : sunspot chaos sun : Wolf sunspot numbers
ISSN号	1009-9271
通讯作者	Li, QX (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Yunnan Observ, Kunming 650011, Peoples R China.
产权排序	第一完成单位
英文摘要	We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number R-g and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of R-g, is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear; study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the R-g series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 +/- 0.0023 (month(-1)). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 +/- 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from R-z. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be,done only for,a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
学科主题	Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]	Astronomy & Astrophysics
研究领域[WOS]	Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]	SOLAR-ACTIVITY RECONSTRUCTION ; TIME-SERIES ; LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS ; CYCLE
收录类别	SCI
原文出处	http://iopscience.iop.org/1009-9271/7/3/14/
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000247553300014
公开日期	2016-05-03
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6112]
专题	云南天文台_太阳物理研究组
作者单位	1.National Astronomical Observatories / Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li QX,Li KJ. Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2007,7(3):435-440.
APA	Li QX,&Li KJ.(2007).Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers.CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,7(3),435-440.
MLA	Li QX,et al."Low dimensional chaos from the group sunspot numbers".CHINESE JOURNAL OF ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 7.3(2007):435-440.